S7 MM Industry Analysis and Emerging Trends

本帖最后由 7samurai 于 2011-12-19 00:35 编辑 The following Critical Factors impacting the Industry Business Model will be analyzed within the context of the  political, legal, macro economic and oncoming head winds: 1) Supply Chain - MM 2) Distribution - Agents/Keepers, 3) Consumption and buying behavior - Hunters Note:  Brothers please assist me because I certainly no expert but just my casual observations over the years of hobbying. Supply Chain MM I remember when there was a broader choice of MMs coming from HK, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Korea.  Do you recall the Malaysian invasion?   Those were the days for $120/hh you can get your entire body licked from head to toe  as well as a your smelly pe pe. .    In the last year I noticed a marked decrease in the quality of HK MMs and this is due to tougher screening process upon arrival by immigration.  To enter dimsums have to be much more smarter.  Gone are the days MMs can arrive themselves without acompanying sponsorship from a friend or agent.  Providing a persuasive and credible story for their visit will be paramount. In fact 1 garage was so dry for 10 months and had the same 2-3 MMs vs the usual  3 week rotation of new MM!  Local source from foreign students seems to be emerging and increasing as the state of the economy in China goes into  decline.   Recently according to the news the Korean authorities have decided to clamp down and restrict the flow of Kimchis MMs.    From purely an observational perspective I haven't seen a dramatic decline at the distribution level but a slowing in fresh turnover.    The influx of Koreans in the past fews years have maintained kimchi pricing at $140.    As a result the premium gap between Kimchi and Dimsum has evaporated in most cases.     With the "Rise of China" foreign student enrolment has sky rocket and provide a source of fresh n young dimsum occassionally.   Across the ocean, HK has seen a parallel rise in mainland dimsum forcing older girls to seek opportunities in Canada .   These maturer mainlanders need to be a resident of HK for 7 years before receiving a passport.  So it's no surprise the age is over 30.   Thus MMs with Mainland origins dominate the market in every distribution channel. In fact young fresh dimsums are commanding a higher premium at $160/hh or in some cases making themselves only available and charging  45min or plus $300/hr.   Former Hebe-JD played at the premium segment.  Just before Hebe was imprisoned he was feeling competitive pressures from new market entrants.    Some of these market entrants failed as the product quality didn't justify the premium particularly in an increasingly slowing and difficult economic times.   Larry  at Spring Garden has made these young MM more accessible at $150/hh and displacing weaker competitors like Luxury Girls. Currrent Source Mix Estimate: Malaysia/Thailand - 0 Korea - 35% HK /Singapore/Taiwan(includes via China)- 55%  (80% mainland vs 20% local HK/Taiwan/Singapore) Local Students/Part-timers - 10% With an increasing gloomy economic outlook,  supply volume should increase from all segments particularly Local Student/Part-timer population. Students are beginning to feel the cashflow pinch from parents and graduates are  facing a difficult job market .  Also government clamp downs will be difficult to enforce over  the long haul as there are much higher priorities to grapple with. Distribution - Agents/Keepers (to be continued) I startedoff my asian only hunting adventure with downtown garages.   It was a new world to me as I was use to booking 1 on 1 arrangments.  It took me awhile to get accustom to the old school style of see 1st and pick a girl from a line up of 5 - like racks of meat on the shelf.1st come 1st serve approach.Also it didnt help that other waiting customers would be lounging around and  able to see you.   It was both excitin and uncomfortable if you know what i mean.The garage market is divided into the following 2 key segments.    I'm a great believer in clearly understanding who your customers are and  focus on serving that market as best as you can. 1) Traditional Line Up (40% of the market) This type of operation typically attracts traditional or less educated chinese men who were use to this type of set up in their home land.    Operating out of a house, apartment or condowith several bedroomsand MMs the rental cost structure is typically lowerand thus the pricing strategy is $120-140 on average or less. 2) 1 on 1 (60%) a)  Hotel b)  Condo <ben author and contributor> Distribution-wize, the $140+ range is a very unique segment part of the overall market. For the rest of this discussion, i'll refer to it as "OUR segment". I also believe this part of the market is in transitionary phase and will undergo massive change soon. Here's why (prepare for another long-winded rant). The Asian market is quite large in the "$100 & below" segment. A large supply of readily available providers, and a large base of customers (mostly blue-collar, lower-income, less-educated guys) that aren't very choosy (they will eat whatever they get). This market segment is stable. The price-ceiling for this segment acts as the theoretical price-floor for our segment. No matter how much wolf community solidarity & pressure we exert on the keepers, its not gonna go anywhere lower than $100 (not even for a short-term promotion). The mainstream (westerners) market is likewize stable with a large supplier/provider base. Its not a direct substitute/competitor, but its a partial substitute/competitor (after all some ppl like white meat, some like asian, some like both). It also acts as a price-check & counter-force that helps to keep Asian MM prices in line. Because the market segment is large, there's no worries of supply shortage or hoarding of certain MMs. What i mean is that gwailos usually r very willing / honest when it comes to writing reviews. When done collectively, it benefits everybody. Then comes the market segment for premium Chinese girls (i'll leave Kimchis aside for someone more knowledgable). I'm talking "$200 & above". This is an extremely tiny segment of the market with very few players on both the supply & demand side, with a neglible impact on us. Earlier, when i argued that wolf community should stand united to fight for our collective benefit, some bros voice up that there r "super rich guys" that don't care $$, so anything we do will be undermined by their indiscriminate spending. This is simply not true. I explained here <http://sex网站.com/bbs/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=599>, and i'll offer a recap. Simply put, the rich (either older successful businessmen, or young free-spending kids wif very wealthy parents) seldom partake in the market (at least not the same way we do, which is fixed sum $ for limited time wif MM). Its too easy for the rich to pick up a hot girl at clubs / ktv / bubbletea / or friend connections. Same goes for hot girls, its very easy for them to meet rich guys. From there, some become bf-gf relationship, some will official 包養(wrap), some just casual on-off sex for expensive gifts. All the really hot young girls i know (and i meet many of them in my regular line of work) hv lots of rich guys chasing after them, even some of the semi-hot girls do so too. So it is very easy for a materialistic girl with attractive appearance to get wat she wants without sinking to become an actual MM (of the variety we visit). Rich guys likewize, may come out for a meal here and there, but most time they stick wif the practice that i described above, because feels cleaner, more exclusivity/privacy, and better feel (actual mistress/lover feel instead of quick release). Here's an analogy, if $$ is really tight, u may rent a car by day (or hour) when u really need to use 1, and just walk or ttc other times. But if $$ is not the issue, would u go for budget rentals everyday thats been used & worn down by many ppl, or would u buy/lease a new car (which u can switch again anytime)? For most ppl, answer is obvious. Therefore, those guys don't influence the market that much except to keep the top-quality MMs out of the supply. Getting to our segment. As explained earlier, very top-quality girls (lets call them A-grade) is mostly unavailable (they don't enter the market at all). We want young girls, but we also want reasonably attractive (the B-grade), however not enuf of them to go around. There's a lot of average (C-grade), and even unattractive/ugly girls (D & E-grades) that try to price themselves along side the B-graders tho. This is y hunting is challenging (but at same time fun). This is y we need reviews to help each other. I won't go over the entire argument again, but even on an individual basis (because some bros r selfish, which i don't blame), the downside of writing review leading to "stampedes/mass-rushing" to ur favourite girls will be more than offset by ur personal gain (u'll be trusted by other senior wolves who will share private info to u, get vip treatment including priority service & sometimes discounts from keepers because they know review-writers r not to be messed with, independent/private-do MMs will contact u & ignore those 100s other wolves messaging her that she never heard of, etc, etc). We need to help each other out, and more important place pressure on keepers not to BS us. Economically-speaking, the $140-160 range USED TO BE very lucrative which led to a sudden influx of new "keepers", some of whom have no business / talent for doing so. It used to be that a condo unit renting for $1500 (approx) per month can hold 2-3 girls, each doing average of 6-8 clients per day. Industry-standard, keeper gets 1/3 cut, so doing the math. That is $30k profit per month. Nowadays, with so many upstarts (using shady practices, and sub-par girls), and also the popularity of 1-vs-1 arrangements, the overhead for hosting a girl (either condo or hotel) may be $100~150/day, and the girl may get only 2-3 clients a day (because too many crappy MMs out there). Some keepers r driven out of business (which is y we've seen some new garages crop up this year only to fold in a couple of months, or change hands to new management). Some of the credit can be given to the power of us sharing info (even tho other older garages can survive with more solid foundation base of old clients / "regulars" that only go to 1 garage & don't go on forums, however even this is slowly changing). I've also heard lots of complaints from MMs. The lower-quality MMs complain of the lack of business (typical when a C-grade MM charges $160 instead of $120 that they deserve), while the higher-quality MMs complain the keepers work them too hard (no time to eat, no rest between clients, push them to take clients they don't want, etc). Most of them also complain the industry-standard of keeper taking 1/3 share, sometimes more, is too high (leading to too many keepers, too little good-quality MMs). Many MMs try jumping ship between different agencies trying to find a better shop. Because conditions r tough, good-quality MMs ( B-graders, esp the B+) don't even wanna stay in the industry, some quit, some try to go indy & only do full-nites/wraps,  some change to part-time, and some potential new entrants r deterred. A lot of keepers try very hard to recruit new MMs, and at same time some use underhanded methods to keep existing MMs to stay. Rite now our market segment is at a critical juncture. There's 2 ways it can go. Keepers r very reluctant to reduce prices, or make hard-effort to improve business practices or MM quality, they may decide to remedy low business wif even more short-sighted tactics such as further raising prices, even more exaggerated lies followed wif more hard-sell / high-pressure once they successfully tricked a client to come. It also leads to very negative competition amongst garages that sometimes resort to backstabbing, mutual sabotaging, and smear campaigns. However, if we ONLY support the good garages (or occasionally those crap garage that hv a quality MM) by sharing info, we will see more honest keepers that bring us quality girls. Andy/Moonwaiting, Lex/PC, Larry/LapSpring, all deserve praise in this aspect. I hope everybody will write reviews. Currently, some senior wolves r taking an approach where they write less reviews publicly, and privately share info amongst themselves and also newer wolves that have contributed reviews. This is because some them have privately reflected to me that other forum members r greedy & ungrateful (they demand info, but not contribute, they don't say thx but when they don't like or disagree wif a review, then they will #$%@). I cannot fault them for feeling this way, altho i honestly hope this will not become a prevailent trend. I hope EVERYBODY will be open in sharing info, as well as respectful of each other. Its a group effort and hopefully we can achieve a "harmonious & prosperous" forum like the gwailo forum Terb where there is plentiful info and little BS.